Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for West Virginia

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for West Virginia in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for West Virginia in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.3% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.788) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.115).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.3208 4.18%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5555 -1.71%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1118 -1.73%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0330 -0.26%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0110 -0.66%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0119 0.10%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0027 -0.06%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.0632 0.54%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0009 -0.01%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0073 0.04%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0064 -0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.7030 -8.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1448 -1.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0376 0.37%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0293 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0247 0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0018 -0.03%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3089 6.07%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0302 0.38%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0348 -0.63%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0513 1.49%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.0422 -0.40%
Low Income 0.0081 0.7919 0.64%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0073 -0.04%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0156 0.24%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.5087 9.61%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.2566 0.40%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.2383 -0.35%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0018 0.03%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0073 -0.02%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0073 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.4253 0.94%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 173.0000 -3.17%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0342 7.28%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0637 5.49%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0680 1.29%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0133 -7.10%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0356 -17.34%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1022 38.41%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2778 22.88%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1082 -9.65%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0291 13.17%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0700 15.50%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0495 3.38%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $6,524 for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41287) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34763).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.3235 -$919
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5267 -$454
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1029 -$324
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0281 -$149
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0053 -$32
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0094 $2
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0027 -$12
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.0695 -$162
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0094 -$25
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0053 $37
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.6992 $253
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1578 $130
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0374 -$50
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0374 $211
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0254 $103
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0027 $23
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4037 $390
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0374 $136
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0348 -$34
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0588 -$79
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 145.7630 0.0481 $7
Low Income -332.4067 0.7233 -$240
Homeless -446.4262 0.0040 -$2
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0201 $40
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.6150 $497
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4138.7450 $1,512
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1644 $331
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.2139 $147
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0027 -$7
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0067 -$40
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0080 $7
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.4131 -$85
Median Days in Program 3.2489 155.0000 $504
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0342 $824
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0637 $2,059
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0680 $2,668
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0133 -$642
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0356 $145
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1022 $9,891
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2778 $15,602
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1082 $6,239
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0291 $313
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0700 $2,775
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0495 -$302

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 32.8% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.549) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.221).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.4094 -14.80%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5382 28.08%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1018 -0.71%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0254 -2.54%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0085 2.48%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0069 -1.00%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0031 0.66%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.0617 -3.50%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0039 0.33%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0123 2.44%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.6970 -8.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1650 -3.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0370 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0424 -3.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0278 -0.56%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0023 0.43%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4541 16.56%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0617 -1.88%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0540 -1.41%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0501 1.26%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.0732 1.56%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.0285 2.23%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6407 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1696 1.11%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0023 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0085 0.42%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0170 -0.48%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.3662 2.68%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 192.0000 6.81%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 293.0000 -7.15%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.0455 -0.04%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0342 34.30%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0637 56.87%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0680 82.42%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0133 -58.41%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0356 113.01%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1022 77.44%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2778 275.81%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1082 27.93%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0291 95.62%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0700 -1.00%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0495 -67.06%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 78.8% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.579) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.367).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.2671 1.59%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.5023 0.95%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.2540 -0.43%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.0937 0.99%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0572 -1.09%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0094 0.11%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0037 -0.11%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0319 -0.11%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0028 -0.03%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0009 -0.02%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.6410 -1.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1762 -3.42%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0272 -0.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0450 -0.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.0544 -0.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0141 -0.17%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0197 0.21%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0084 -0.02%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0159 -0.08%
Veteran 0.0056 0.0647 0.04%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0066 0.03%
Low Income -0.0518 0.0000 0.00%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0028 0.01%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0000 0.00%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0440 -1.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.7976 9.02%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0769 0.44%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.9213 1.92%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0469 0.35%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.6514 -3.34%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 290.0000 0.23%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0342 -6.93%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0637 -2.97%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0680 -11.60%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0133 -13.19%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0356 -22.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1022 -36.83%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2778 -55.41%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1082 -30.86%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0291 8.85%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0700 8.60%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0495 2.04%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,938 for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 34053) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-24115).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.2512 -$478
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.5215 $582
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.2428 -$31
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.0849 -$181
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0455 -$113
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0084 -$7
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0036 -$17
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0335 -$51
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0000 $0
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0036 -$13
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0012 -$4
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.6519 -$913
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1746 -$332
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0251 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0467 $71
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.0598 $70
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0096 $21
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.0227 $39
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0096 $36
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0144 $4
Veteran 1445.8344 0.0634 $92
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0000 $0
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0072 -$6
Low Income -538.7097 0.0000 $0
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0024 $19
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0000 $0
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0335 $6
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8469 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 8953.3200 $821
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0586 $79
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.9402 $65
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0335 -$83
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0000 $0
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.6519 -$263
Median Days in Program 2.2222 267.0000 $593
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0342 -$933
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0637 $2,335
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0680 $3,208
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0133 -$3,468
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0356 $3,060
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1022 $9,714
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2778 $14,215
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1082 $4,758
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0291 -$132
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0700 $1,558
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0495 -$287

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 27.5% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.897) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.622).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.3213 -4.85%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.5152 -3.37%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2469 5.96%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.0902 4.13%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0665 6.08%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0101 -0.67%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0023 -0.12%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0293 -0.97%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0023 0.60%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0023 0.01%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.5513 -10.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.2424 -5.78%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0361 -0.94%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.0552 1.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.0789 -0.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0248 -1.06%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0417 -0.09%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0135 -0.36%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0203 -2.94%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0800 -7.39%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0090 0.33%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8974 2.57%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1150 4.46%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0214 0.76%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0011 -0.05%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.7012 -6.75%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 328.5000 -10.56%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 314.0000 -8.59%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0237 0.38%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0342 -27.67%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0637 28.34%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0680 67.00%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0133 -78.24%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0356 43.45%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1022 164.13%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2778 198.99%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1082 16.36%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0291 190.01%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0700 -19.93%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0495 -53.55%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 59.7% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.094) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.691).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.3233 1.92%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1918 -2.75%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3918 -8.05%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1918 0.20%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0027 -0.02%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0000 0.00%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0356 -0.15%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0000 0.00%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0027 -0.09%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0082 0.12%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3973 2.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0137 -0.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0000 0.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0000 0.00%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.0877 2.41%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1123 0.40%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1753 -0.82%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0000 0.00%
Low Income 0.0375 0.9644 3.62%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0932 -1.87%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.0630 0.40%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0301 -0.03%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2877 -2.06%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.0000 0.00%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.7890 3.49%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0219 0.16%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0959 -0.33%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0000 0.00%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.6137 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.2712 0.40%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 373.0000 -1.50%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0342 -23.24%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0637 -11.98%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0680 -9.25%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0133 -9.73%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0356 -7.61%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1022 -26.13%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2778 0.69%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1082 -4.27%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0291 -31.40%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0700 23.09%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0495 -7.36%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,210 for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14829) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-11619).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.3099 -$581.76
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0000 $0.00
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1408 -$184.37
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.4272 -$455.63
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2066 $134.17
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Black -886.3703 0.0423 -$37.45
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0000 $0.00
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0000 $0.00
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4695 $649.74
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0188 -$15.55
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0000 $0.00
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0000 $0.00
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.1080 $66.28
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0798 $43.59
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1643 -$81.37
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0000 $0.00
Low Income -305.7985 0.9624 -$294.31
Homeless 983.9044 0.0892 $87.77
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.0469 -$60.31
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0329 $33.19
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2864 $244.72
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.0000 $0.00
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0000 $0.00
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0000 $0.00
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.8310 $133.93
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0000 $0.00
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0235 -$38.94
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0704 -$38.00
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0000 $0.00
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.6150 -$2.67
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.2864 -$7.98
Median Days in Program 0.5942 389.0000 $231.14
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0342 -$108.62
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0637 $700.32
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0680 $1,465.75
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0133 -$739.18
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0356 $1,596.13
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1022 $1,453.54
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2778 $5,659.16
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1082 $766.89
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0291 $1,658.97
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0700 $3,048.89
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0495 -$499.25

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 39.1% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.105) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.714).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.2951 -8.14%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0000 0.00%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3095 -27.93%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3496 -24.46%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1862 -30.55%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0086 -0.01%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0029 0.00%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.0287 0.01%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0057 -0.09%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0115 2.26%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2264 -6.09%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0143 1.51%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0029 -0.18%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0029 0.54%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1805 0.40%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.0000 0.00%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0000 0.00%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.8080 -5.76%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0315 1.74%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.1862 -0.94%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 376.0000 -12.27%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.0458 -1.58%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0342 26.12%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0637 60.98%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0680 39.64%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0133 -57.06%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0356 -50.74%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1022 147.99%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2778 196.22%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1082 68.15%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0291 147.90%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0700 -51.36%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0495 -5.77%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 61.0% for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.303) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.693).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4237 3.39%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.5111 5.55%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1974 -1.70%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0753 -0.05%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0533 -0.34%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0121 0.28%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0025 -0.06%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0503 -0.81%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0011 0.11%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0063 -0.19%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0048 0.12%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5240 -0.90%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1656 0.64%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0272 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0333 1.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0593 -4.02%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0203 -1.07%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1124 0.97%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0516 -0.47%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0356 -1.27%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0507 1.10%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0000 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0000 0.00%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0000 0.00%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0031 -0.02%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0303 0.56%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0000 0.00%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6740 21.39%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0945 -1.46%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.1480 -0.57%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0007 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0000 0.00%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0000 0.00%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 38.0000 -1.05%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0342 5.77%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0637 9.82%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0680 6.88%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0133 -0.61%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0356 10.56%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1022 9.64%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2778 35.64%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1082 6.40%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0291 11.35%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0700 11.90%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0495 1.70%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,419 for West Virginia for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39924) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34505).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4010 -$1,113
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.5159 $788
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1891 $42
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0676 $117
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0404 $161
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0133 $20
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0026 -$3
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0523 -$153
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0011 -$3
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0059 -$33
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0042 $45
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5204 -$918
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1777 -$387
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0284 -$62
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0365 $77
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0667 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0225 -$113
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.1513 $69
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0587 -$68
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0257 -$131
Veteran -913.8967 0.0502 -$46
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0000 $0
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0000 $0
Low Income 634.4633 0.0000 $0
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0025 -$9
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0245 $47
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0000 $0
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8128 -$178
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6028.0000 $1,574
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0399 $31
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.1458 $66
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0006 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0000 $0
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0000 $0
Median Days in Program 0.8717 36.0000 $31
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0342 $1,269
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0637 $2,724
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0680 $3,243
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0133 $151
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0356 $2,231
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1022 $6,940
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2778 $14,304
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1082 $4,654
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0291 $1,211
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0700 $3,593
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0495 -$252

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x